Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer of the consulting firm TrendMacro, in a note today to clients:
Only a fool would say that there is no risk to the banking system here. But given the apparent lack of any idea at Treasury or the Fed of how the bail-out would actually work, the terrible track record of those same authorities whose bungling of the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group situations only accelerated the crisis, and the onerous capital-punishing provisions being forced into the plan by Congress, at this point we are tempted to think that the world might be a better place without this particular bail-out. . . . The climate of fear in Washington could easily still force a deal in very short order. No deal would be a shock to markets at first, and it would be a shame to lose what was good about the proposed program. But if it’s loaded up with mortgage forbearance mandates and punitive equity grabs, then markets will be far worse with a deal than without one.
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