John Podhoretz of Commentary identifies 10 reasons John McCain might just be able to pull this thing off. I chose my favorites. Click the link to see the rest.
1) One poll has undecided voters at 14 percent on the last weekend, which means most of them probably really arenâ€™t undecided, that they are either going to stay home or vote preponderantly for McCain and pull McCain across the finish line.
2) Most pollsters are claiming the electorate this year is six to nine points more Democratic than it is Republican. That would be an unprecedented shift from four years ago, when the electorate was evenly divided, 37-37, Republican and Democratic, and a huge shift from two years ago, when it was 37-33 Democratic. A shift of this size didnâ€™t even happen after Watergate.
3) Obama frequently outpolled his final result in primaries, which might have many causes but might also indicate that he has difficulty closing the sale.
4) The argument in the past two weeks has shifted, such that many undecided voters who are now paying attention are hearing about Obamaâ€™s redistributionist tendencies at exactly the right moment for McCain.
8) What happened with the Joe the Plumber story is that Obama has now been effectively outed as a liberal, not a moderate; and because liberalism is still less popular than conservatism, thatâ€™s not the best place for Obama to be.
9) The fire lit under Obamaâ€™s young supporters in the winter was largely due to Iraq and his opposition to the war. The stunning decline in violence and the departure of Iraq from the front page has put out the fire, to the extent that, like the young woman who made a sexy video calling herself Obama Girl and then didnâ€™t vote in the New York primary because she went to get a manicure, they might not want to stand on line on Tuesday.
In case you didn’t know, because you’re not a long-time reader, another of my biases is my native, eternal optimism.
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